By 2011 America will have more than 1.7 million men and women in prison, costing taxpayers as much as $27.5 billion more than what is currently spent on prisons, a new report from the Public  Safety Performance Project (http://aspx.pewpublicsafety.org) at the Pew Charitable Trusts finds.

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America's Prison Population 2007-2011 (52 pages, PDF), estimates that without policy changes by the states, one in every 178 U.S. residents will live in prison by 2011. In particular, Alaska, Arizona,  Idaho, Montana, and Vermont can expect to see their prison systems grow by a third or more over that period unless they change their sentencing and release practices. And barring  reforms, Colorado, Nevada, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming can expect their inmate populations to increase by about 25 percent.

Prepared by the D.C.-based JFA Institute, the report estimates that new inmates will cost states an additional $15 billion for prison operations over the five-year period, while construction of new prison beds will cost as much as $12.5 billion. A significant driver of the expected prison population increase is the cumulative impact of state policy decisions such as mandatory minimum prison sentences, reduced parole grant rates, and high recidivism rates, especially among people on parole and probation.

"As states continue to struggle with tight budgets and competing priorities among health, education, and safety, they are beginning to question whether huge additional investments in prisons are the most effective and economical way of combating crime," said Susan Urahn, managing director of State Policy Initiatives at the Pew Charitable Trusts. "The challenge for state policy makers is to ensure that taxpayers are getting a strong return on their investment in corrections: safer communities, efficient use of public dollars, and ex-offenders who become productive, law-abiding members of society."

"Prison Growth Could Cost Up to $27.5 Billion Over Next 5 Years."

Pew Charitable Trusts Press Release 2/14/07.